Scott has frequently cited “6-3-1” as a measure of Vermont’s economic and social stagnation. He claimed that Vermont was losing six people from the workforce every day, there were three fewer kids in public schools every day, and one baby was born every day to an opiate-addicted mother.
Since November, Scott said, roughly 4,400 people have joined Vermont’s workforce, which grew from 345,000 to 349,400. That’s a 1.3 percent increase. Its size was dramatically magnified in the chart shown above, which covers an eight-month period and ranges from 344,000 to 350,000.
Scott showed a similar chart tracking the labor force participation rate, which is the percentage of working-age people who are either employed or actively looking for a job. At first glance it displays dramatic growth — but the actual increase, over the past year and a half, was from 67 percent in January 2017 to 67.6 percent now.
In reality, the growth has been real, but modest.
Both charts indicated an uptick that started around the beginning of this year. Last Friday, state economists Tom Kavet and Jeffrey Carr released their semiannual economic outlook report. They attributed Vermont’s growth to two factors having nothing to do with state policy: the federal tax cuts and high deficit spending by the federal government. The tax cuts took effect on January 1, coinciding directly with the economic improvements Scott proclaimed.
When asked if he could pinpoint any positive indicators resulting from his own policies, Scott relied on generalities and anecdotal evidence.
“This is the result of a number of factors,” he said, and listed holding the line on taxes and fees, efforts by administration officials and lawmakers, his strong focus on affordability, and growing confidence among businesspeople and consumers.
“Every tool in the toolbox is being utilized,” Scott said. “We’re seeing positive effects, but nothing we can measure so far.”
Kavet called it a “distributional issue” that has held sway for the past 35 years, with the benefits of economic growth accruing almost entirely to the wealthiest Americans. Scott was unwilling to acknowledge this apparent disconnect between prosperity and wages. Indeed, in spite of the data, he insisted that wages are on the upswing.
“Anecdotally, I would say yes,” Scott said. “I’ve talked to business that are raising wages and benefits. I believe we’ll see continued growth. We will see a natural progression of wages.”
That “natural progression” hasn’t happened since the early 1980s, but it’s nice to know that the governor still has faith.
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According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, all New England states except Conn. saw growth in the Labor Force from Nov. 2017 to June 2018.
2.78% MA
1.27% VT
1.23% NH
0.08% RI
0.06% ME
-0.82% CT
Correcton: RI should be 0.8% and ME should be 0.6%
Are you responding to something in the article that says otherwise? No. Did you add that Vermont’s workforce growth is second best in New England? No. Your comment is purely gratuitous, and implicitly negative. You are just being a partisan, anti-Scott busybody,
Mr. Hoffer is consistent here, that economic activity in Vermont, whether it’s up or down, is consistent with that of the other New England states, and that activity is not the result of anything specific to Vermont’s government or business policies. Not a hard thing to grasp.
“Are you responding to something in the article that says otherwise? No.”
Correct. I’m providing information that wasn’t in the article. Additional – and relevant, information. Imagine.
“Did you add that Vermont’s workforce growth is second best in New England? No.”
Well, I’m the one who provided the information and showed it in descending order so I guess I did.
You do not dispute that 4,400 people — a significant number — joined the VT workforce.
So why did you feel the necessity to chime in gratuitously and add unnecessary “context”? For one reason and one reason only: to throw shade at Scott, who has the audacity not to be a Progressive. You are a partisan operative disguised as an auditor.
John Walters bashing the Governor once again. Are you as negative in real life as you are on your job? I watched the Facebook video and Scott said he wasnt there to take credit but to enphasize that his initiatives are focusing in the right areas, but obviously that doesnt fit your narrative. Youve got your head so far up Little Timmy Ashes butt, Im embarrassed for you.
Things like this make me embarrassed to live in a state where our Governor doesn’t understand statistics. But then I remember I also live in a country when our President doesn’t understand consent and then I am mortified.
Could you please explain exactly how the above article demonstrates that Gov Scott doesn’t understand statistics?
He said VT gained 4,400 workers. Thats a fact.
He said that thats a 1.3 % increase. Thats a fact.
Theres no misunderstanding there.
What is it about statistics that he doesnt understand?
You can maybe argue that he is magnifying the relative meaning of the 4,400 worker increase (I dont think he is) or that he is unduly taking credit for it (again, he isnt). But he is neither falsifying any numbers or showing that he doesnt understand them. He is just saying that VT gained 4,400 workers and thats a 1.3 % increase.
So how does he not understand statistics?
Ironic indeed.
6-3-1 sounds like UVMMc. Just pathetic! Lies lies lies! My Adult children left this State because of no decent paying jobs or opportunities. Ive been at UVMMC ad RN for 29 years, and have had no pay increase over 10 years. What the hell makes you think anyone would want to live here? Ill tell you. Out of starters second homes. Good lluck with the economy. Turning into a shitshow Governor.
UVMM nurse 47th percentile in nation! Make less then Plattsburgh and we are a Level 1 Trauma Center! Whats wrong with this BS? While the doctors and Administration make millions and keep spending millions on real estate! recently bought a building in winooski, and Pizzagelli building a Medical building for UVMMC breaking ground in spring, completeled by Fall? Wheres the GMCB o this? Its a secret from the public? Im
Reference sources: (3)
VT Population 2018 (Demographics/Maps)
Agency of Community Development ACCD.vermont.gov.FY2018 – Budget vs. Governor Recommended, Staffing, Salaries, Wages, Meals etc.
Wikipedia: 14 Counties, 237 Towns, 9 Cities in Vermont
My questions below:
Of the 4,400 Workers gained are they presently working?
Of the 4,400 Workers, how many of these positions were considered to be FT Permanent, Seasonal, Temporary, Per Diem and/or Interns?
Is there a demographic chart & information available showing which Counties showed the most growth (guessing Chittenden) and which Counties showed a decline, Data including Residents leaving the area and Businesses closing.
In the NEK alone 2 businesses have closed within the last few months (Sears & McDonalds).
Over the last 2 years there have been more. Not including VT Life Magazine.
“Of the 4,400 Workers gained are they presently working?”
“Employment” is way up since November, but that includes those who worked as little as one hour during the reference week and the self-employed. Non-farm Payroll Jobs are up 1,300 since November.
“Of the 4,400 Workers, how many of these positions were considered to be FT Permanent, Seasonal, Temporary, Per Diem and/or Interns?”
We don’t have those figures.
Re. Businesses (with employees): From March 2016 to March 2017 (latest available), 10,900 businesses opened and 9,500 closed; 25,000 businesses expanded and 24,400 contracted.
Re. Migration: According to IRS data, from 2014 2016, 27,925 people moved out of Vermont, while 26,940 moved in. The data shows that more people in their prime working years (35 to <55) moved in than moved out and there was a rough equivalence for the group just below (26 to <35).
Re. Counties: We don’t have monthly figures for counties. Here are the figures for 4th quarter 2016 to 4th quarter 2017 (latest available; percent change in jobs): eight grew, six declined.
-1.2% Addison
+1.4% Bennington
+0.6% Caledonia
+0.8% Chittenden
+6.6% Essex
-2.2% Franklin
+0.7% Grand Isle
+0.8% Lamoille
+0.5% Orange
-0.1% Orleans
-0.4% Rutland
-0.2% Washington
-0.5% Windham
+0.4% Windsor
Mr. Hoffer,
Thank you for providing the information.
Re: Migration: The information provided according to the IRS data, is any information available for 2017 or is the 2014 2016 information provided the only information available?
Ref: http://www.vtlm.info/Laborforce:
June 2018 (not adjusted seasonally) Rating 3.0%
Total 353,058
Employed 342,608
Unemployed 10,450
The above website list/shows the rates per each county.
genesis_44
Re: Migration: IRS provides some historical data, but 2017 figures are not yet available.
My office recently released a report that included some additional data on migration. See the Data section beginning on page 58.
http://auditor.vermont.gov/sites/auditor/f…
Re. Labor Force data: The link you cited is not for jobs per se. As I said, “employment” is not the same thing as jobs (it’s complicated). Moreover, the source for the labor force, employment and unemployment figures you cited (Current Population Survey) has a very small sample size and is self-reported. The sample is good for the nation as a whole (and for some statewide statistics), but too small for reliable data by county.
http://www.vtlmi.info/lm201506.pdf
On the other hand, the jobs data is much more reliable because it comes from official sources (payroll data) – either “Covered Employment” or the “Current Employment Statistics.”.
I hope that’s helpful.